Gambling Web Site Taking Bets on Global Warming
“You can wager on things in the headlines.”
Soon after, however, Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev, two Russian solar physicists who argue global temperatures are driven by changes in the Sun’s activity, agreed to Annan’s bet.
An MIT meteorologist said three years ago that he would bet money that global average temperatures would cool back down in 20 years.
Scientists do it
– Humans will find a way to reverse global warming so efficiently that global freezing becomes a factor by 2020 Yes: 300/1
o Click here to visit FOXNews.com’s Natural Science Center.
“This is where the advantage is to the player,” Richards said in a telephone interview. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
– Cape Canaveral is submerged by 2015 Yes: 100/1
– Cape Hatteras is submerged by 2015 Yes: 300/1
One scientist took the wagering meteorologist, Richard Lindzen, up on his bet, but the deal fell apart over a disagreement about odds.
– It’s proven that humans caused global warming beyond any scientific doubt before Dec. The loser will pay up in 2018.. “His wallet thinks it is a 2 percent shot. “A couple of colleagues have offers on the table, but there are no takers on the other side,” he added.
“Most people who claim to be contrarians and say, ‘The planet is going to cool,’ none of them will put their money where their mouth is,” he said. I don’t expect anyone in any official position to use that exact form.”
Global Warming Related Bets Offered by BetUS.com (see notes below regarding * and #):
However, no wager was ever settled on because Lindzen wanted odds of 50-to-1 in his favor.
“It’s part of a campaign we’ve been doing for the past two and a half years called ‘pop culture gaming,'” Richards said. “Unlike sports, where there are set formulas and statistics and numbers, these are variables that we can’t anticipate.”
The two camps have agreed to compare global temperatures between 1998 and 2003 with those between 2012 and 2017. 31, 2007 Yes: 2/1*#
But scientists warn the odds are designed to part suckers from their cash.
“300-to-1 might make this worth considering, I suppose,” Annan said.
“Richard Lindzen’s words say that there is about a 50 percent chance of [global] cooling,” Annan wrote about the bet. ‘Beyond any scientific doubt’ is poorly worded though. “Anyone who puts money on that would be an idiot.”
The quote triggered a flurry of Internet dialogues and prompted scientists to challenge each other to make bets on climate-change issues.
James Annan, a climate scientist at the Frontier Research Center for Global Change in Japan, said many of the bets are “silly” and mostly of the “Elvis will be found alive and living on the Moon” type.
A dozen analysts combed through scientific studies on global warming to create the odds, Richards said.
– The ocean will rise six inches by the end of the year (worldwide as an average) Yes: 150/1
One bet gives members 1-to-5 odds that scientists will prove global warming exists beyond any scientific doubt by the end of this year.
– Antarctica will become livable for humans by 2015 (must be able to sustain crops in order for wager to win) Yes: 500/1
Another gives 100-to-1 odds that polar bears will be extinct by 2010.
– Cape Cod is submerged by 2015 Yes: 150/1
BetUS.com spokesman Reed Richards said the company will personally back numerous bets, or “propositions,” posted on the m88 asia Web site related to global warming.
However, there is one bet Annan said he might consider.
While new to most of us, betting on global warming is old hat to some scientists.
A measure of truth
Pop culture gaming
The service, BetUS.com, announced it will give members a chance to wager on various global warming-related issues.
– Polar bears will become extinct by 2010 Yes: 100/1
(A complete list of all the global-warming related bets is listed at the end of this article.)
*To qualify as proven, “the government would have to announce in a statement that the study is without flaw and also conclude it is real without any scientific doubt,” BetUS.com spokesman Reed Richards said.
This meant that for a $10,000 bet, Annan would have to pay Lindzen the entire sum if temperatures dropped, but receive only $200 if they rose.
– Cape May is submerged by 2015 Yes: 200/1
Now an online gambling service is giving the public a chance to do what scientists have been doing among themselves for years.
– Manhattan will be under water before 12/31/11 Yes: 100/1
Schmidt said betting on global warming is a good measure of a global warming nay-sayer’s conviction.
“There have been a few nibbles since but nothing substantial has turned up,” Annan said in an email interview.
“Do they have any idea how high the peak of Manhattan is?” Schmidt said.
A risky wager
For example, scientists could achieve this chilling effect by injecting enough sun-blocking dust into the atmosphere or placing a large sunshade in space.
Copyright © 2007 Imaginova Corp. Which do you believe?”
# Of these bets, James Annan said: “Under the definition of ‘the government says so,’ then we seem to be pretty much there, since the [U.S.] government has endorsed the IPCC report. All Rights Reserved. “It’s been a very good way of showing that a lot of the noise that you hear from the wackier elements is in fact just noise and actually is not based on anything.”
“It’s more like a billion to one,” Schmidt told LiveScience. 31, 2007 Yes: 1/5* #
“I said it will warm more than 0.1 degree [Celsius] in the next decade. Gavin Schmidt, a climate modeler at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, said the bets are “designed to part fools from their money.”
Schmidt described one bet he personally negotiated with a Canadian paleoclimatologist one night over a dinner that included wine.
Since 2005, Annan said he has offered to make bets with other global-warming skeptics.
– A car that runs solely on water will hit the market by 2008 (must be a stock car produced for mass consumption) Yes:150/1
Another bet for the taking has odds of 100-to-1 that Manhattan will be under water by 2012.
In 2005, Annan offered to take Lindzen, the MIT meteorologist, up on his bet that global temperatures in 20 years will be cooler than they are now.
“This is really more technological and political speculation than climate science,” Annan said.
For example, one of the bets the Web site offers is 150-to-1 odds that the oceans will rise six inches on average worldwide by the end of the year.
Few climate scientists seem willing to bet against the effects of global warming. He said it would warm less than that,” Schmidt said. “But then in the morning, when he may have sobered up, and I tried to get a confirmation that was the bet that we had, I heard no more.”
Richards said “thousands” of people have already placed money on the company’s global-warming bets, with $10 being the average wager.
BetUS.com is offering odds of 300-to-1 that humans will find a way to reverse global warming so efficiently that global freezing becomes a factor by 2020.
– Cape Henry is submerged by 2015 Yes: 200/1
– Florida will be under water before 12/31/11 Yes: 10/1
(The highest natural point in Manhattan is 265 feet above sea level)
Climate scientists disagree that the public has the upper hand.
– It’s proven that global warming exists beyond any scientific doubt before Dec
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